Decisions Traps

This is probably dishonest to open a book and to read the summary only. Back on the shelves. Summaries are sometimes enough to seed your brain!

Just did it with a book about decisions – seen as a multi-trap territory. Interesting, right?

TRAPS, what are they?

  1. Too good to be wrong trap : a great story seems in front of you
  2. Imitation trap : it worked there, it’ll work here
  3. Intuition trap : I feel it’ll work then it will
  4. Too much trust trap : Just do it and it’ll be OK
  5. Inertia trap : when we think we control everything
  6. We know the risks trap : nope
  7. Time horizons : it’ll happens “soon”, or “in a long time”
  8. The group trap : everybody does this thus I’ll do it
  9. Conflict of interests : bad diagnostics and bias (often money)

 

Do you take decisions? Where would you use that? therefore what?

 

Have a nice day!

 

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A Fortnite/Gurushots pattern

A Fortnite/Gurushots pattern

ONE

I don’t play games anymore (though I spent hours online with Myth in the nineties) but I like to read about this world from time to time.

I often fall on this hated pattern : “You have to pay to play, then you have to pay to increase your powers in order to win”.

The feeling to be a cash cow is pretty unpleasant for people…

TWO

Fortnite is this big success online game who has more than 200 millions users. It’s probably a great game, but I’m sure the main reason is because

  1. it’s free to play, anywhere, on a PC, a Mac, a phone
  2. the things you can buy online (because every company needs money, right?) are only cosmetic (clothes, dances, etc), and they don’t affect at all the way you win or not.

It appears that when people don’t feel they’re cash cows, when then don’t feel the pushing hand in their back (“buy, buy, buy, or you won’t win”)… they buy. They pay. They give money. Fortnite wins hundreds of millions every month.

THREE

I just saw a similar pattern with GuruShots, which is a photographers social media, based on challenges and competitions. You post your best pictures, then you expect to be “liked” by the community : it’s very fun, fast and crowded, and it pushes you to be creative.

There, you get more views (and likes) when you just posted a picture, or when you use littles tools (boosts to be more viewed, swapping less viewed pictures, etc).

You get some of these tools at the end of challenges, and you can buy them.

They made one mistake : your tools-rewards are no distributed according to the level you climbed in a challenge, but a bit randomly. But well : it’s pleasant to get them, then to think about where and when you’ll use them to be effective.

It’s simple : participate, take good pictures, and get rewards.

Of course, the people who buy these tools in costly baskets are the one who win. There, you feel the pushing hand in your back (“Give us dollars and win”), and there you don’t pay, because you’d like to win “without this cheat” (but is it?).

But well, it’s a game, it funny, and it’s a kind of balance you have to play with. And that’s true : it makes you think about what is a good picture.

Now they changed the rules : you never get rewards-tools anymore at the end of a challenge, you gain them with “missions”, which are mainly to… vote for other pictures. I have to choose 60 good photos (therefore to check around 3-400 daily, in order to get one of these tools. But :

  • It’s too much work for me.
  • I lost the excitement to get them at the end of each challenge.

Therefore I can choose this :

  1. Abandon and quit the game (bye!)
  2. Go on playing without any support-tools (which is a “no action” mood – you lose a big part of the excitement)
  3. Buy tools (feeling a bigger hand pushing you in my back to do it)

I’m on 2, running towards 1 and quitting.

This is the Fortnite pattern they could follow :

One should be able to win because their pictures are good, or because they have fun using the pictures pushers tools, or because they pay. That’s fair! You should be seen, given rewards and likes (because this is all we like in a photography social media) according to the quality of your work (and not because you voted/watched hundreds of picts). This needs oils, a multiple threads forum (or ways to chat) to connect photographers, and less pressure to “spend money”, a pressure which is now ten years obsolete.

FOUR

Is this pattern usable elsewhere? What about this feeling people have to be cash cows? How to kill this feeling and make them happily give money though? What could be the science of studying where/when to pay? You pay to enter? Inside the game? To get useless but pleasant things (like in Fortnite) or power? Where to think about this science? Marketing, business, game, school, fashion, blogs, medias?

Thanks for reading!

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Company Business Mode : “Grab the most you can, haphazardly”

When you head a business, you have many modes. Being cautious, aggressive, fast or thrifty – it could be artificial and funny to list them.

For example we could study the “Fast & Small Unit” mode. Imagine there’s a snow storm in Marseilles, South of France. It never happens, so the whole city is disorganized. A guy working in a garage takes a huge truck, buys hundreds of snow-tires kits, parks it at one entrance of the city with a billboard, and makes a fortune in one day.

Today I study the “Grab the most you can, haphazardly” mode.

Imagine you own a toy store. As it’s trendy, you decide to sell LPs, vinyls, big quantities, big money. Yeyyy!

On the whole, you have two ways :

  1. Build an annex, hire three or four music fans to buy, organize, present and sell your vinyls and make big money, becoming the great place to be to buy records.
  2. Build nothing, hire nobody, order tons of random vinyls, put them in heaps in corners or in the middle of toys, command your toys specialists to take care of all of it, and grab the most money you can, haphazardly.

It’s funny to watch the consequences of 2 :

  • Your team will be exhausted.
  • Stressed by questions they don’t have the answer to (they know how to sell toys, but they are not record dealers).
  • Your assortment is wrong (“someone” bought the LPs for you and doesn’t know who your customers are and need).
  • Your clientele will be furious (it’s badly organized and the employees know nothing).
  • Your toys turnover will be dipped in many ways (your store is in chaos, you lack place of toys, your employees are in burn out and don’t have time to do their work properly, etc).

But well : you’ll sell vinyls now, right?

You see what you win, but you don’t realized (or don’t want to) what you lose. What are the consequences? How is it inelegant/uncouth? Looter or capitalist scavenger? Why this fear of doing things properly? How to act within this Universe? Who shall wash the dishes?

Who makes more money in the end? 1 or 2?

– Hey Mister Lego, in which Lou Reed album he sings tululuuuuuu?

Thanks for reading!

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Organizing Withdrawal

Seeing to Finesse amid Chaos

The “Titanic Octet” state : stop panicking & arrange twinkles

Make your “not enough” a SCFIM (a Splendid, Complex, Fast, Interesting Machinery)

Make your “not enough” a SCFIM (a Splendid, Complex, Fast, Interesting Machinery)

This tool is used when your you don’t have the means to do your mission.

  1. You can lead a military team – it’s way too small for what you’re asked for into battle.
  2. You’re given a corner in a big store – too little to reach your goals.
  3. You have to take pictures at a wedding but your big Nikon just died and you have to use a point an click shitty camera.
  4. You’re a composer but you’re locked for months with a flute and sheet paper.
  5. You feel that your destiny is to write a book but you have no ideas at all.
  6. Etc.

 

Lament! Rage! Despondence and frustration! You have “not enough”! You could do much better, right?

This is the path we all take. Along with all these :

  • Sarcasms
  • Trying to convince upper hierarchy that you’re spoiled
  • Watching the disaster coming
  • Run away
  • Become cold or indifferent
  • Sacrifice
  • Say “I told you so”

 

That’s boring. My pattern is to roll up your sleeve and build a SCFIM. Make your “not enough” a Splendid, Complex, Fast, Interesting Machinery. It’s elegant!

Smile! Amor Fati! Mute your carps into dolphins. Be fast and elegant. Invent your effectiveness. Surprise yourself. Find possibilities. Open doors. Make it mobile, splendid, clever, complex, fast, elegant, surprising, interesting!

(OK let’s call it MSCCFESIM)

Thanks for reading!

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N/N-1 Business Bullshittery

ONE

Evaluation based on numbers is a bullshite minefield. Each steps spurts numbers, statistics, calculations.

Which mean nothing but bring managers the illusion of mastery.

Digits Masters Detrimentors

TWO

The N-1 bullshite is one of most simple bullshite poo of the business world.

“Last year you made 100 – this year you make 90 : you have obviously a problem, come to my office”

But :

  1. Contingency : Maybe last year you got an unexpected big order from another company, and without this order you would have made 60, therefore you’re doing great today, but it’s hidden in numbers
  2. Market’s vagary : Maybe the “hit” you got last year is postponed this year for the month after, therefore you’ll hit the roof in a month
  3. Thus, prepare to have a “problem” next year, because of the N-1 bullshite
  4. Non significant : Maybe the “analyzed” field is too little : for example you sold 4 staplers in August 1976 and 3 in August 1977 so you’re at -25% – maybe you’ll sell 5 in a year and you’ll be great (and you become an “erratic employee”)
  5. Events : “Your stock is too high this year (+35%!)” but there’s a reason your manager ignore (there’s a big event in two weeks and you’ll sell every single piece)
  6. Not mastering the whole world : Maybe you’re at +135% but there was a shortage last year and it did not depend on you
  7. Purpose : You have a shitty manager, so you make everything possible to get him bad number-indicators… but do a great job out of numbers.
  8. Lazy colleagues : you’re alone mixed up with a team.
  9. Reality hidden by numbers : a lazy guy on a trendy field has good N/N-1 with a lousy attitude which spoils the company’s reputation (get +35% but could have made +60% with a better work), and a great team on a transitioning market gets lukewarm N/N-1 but does a great job for the company, and prepares a bright future for business.

 

Do you have any ideas I could add to this list?

THREE

Numbers are an illusion. They “show” a simple reality, most of the time completely out of the real world, which is moving, multiplugged, complex, and human. Numbers and percentages hide things. They lower your comprehension of what happens.

Talking to people is better. Being smart too. Let % flow around idiots. Have fun.

 

Thanks for reading!

 

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Digits Masters Detrimentors

Example 1

A film distributor hesitates about what to do with a foreign movie, thus it puts it in a few avant-garde theaters in three big cities of the USA, and makes big money, and is very happy about it, then pulls it out.

The distributor doesn’t realize the movie fiercely agitated social medias and could have made 20 times more money with a larger proposition across the country, and much much more if it let is spread by word of mouth.

Example 2

His job is to sell concert tickets 8 hours a day, he’s asked to also sale an insurance fee with each ticket. He sells 3000 tickets a day, 35% insured – which is pretty good.

While he takes a 15 minutes afternoon break, someone takes his place for cover, sells 10 tickets, 5 of them insured – 50%.

The cover guy gets big congratulations by the boss : 50% is better than 35%, right?

Example 3

Google “spurious correlations” to find hilarious graphs that “proves” that there’s a link between “Per capita consumption of cheese (US) correlates with number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets” or “German passenger cars sold in the US correlates with Suicides by crashing of motor vehicle”.

Then be afraid, because it happens all the time in your company.

Example 4

In a medium size city, a DIY and artists store’s boss puts a book & stationery corner. It’s pretty rare, and people come from the everywhere around to buy a magazine or a book. Each of both activities enriches the other.

A new boss arrives, watches the turnover, assures that it’s not that much, then closes the corner. Then complains the whole store revenue slowly decreases…

 

TOOL/DIAL :

Evaluation. What is it? If in one’s job one has to analyse numbers, one has all the chances to understand NOTHING.

Digits give the great illusion of mastering things. And it’s just wrong.

When a “manager” watches bunch of numbers without meeting, asking, listening to the people involved, he’s just a happy jumping goat, an ignorant.

Therefore he’s ridiculous, embarrassing, and detrimental.

What is important is not measurable with numbers.

 

Thanks for reading! (sorry for my English…)

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Beware! Bigwigs are visiting!

CEOs and other bigwigs visit one local office, a local store.

They are surrounded by the local chiefs and managers, like butterflies around a lamp in the night, who laugh too hard to the Big Chieves jokes…

Right? See it?

But of course, the bigwigs warned they will make an appearance. The “important visit by the important heads” was scheduled weeks before!

Thus, for and since days, everything has been hidden, fixed, changed, modelled… to please the elephants.

Finally, the place visited by the pointy shoed top managers and their staff has NOTHING to see with the “real place”. It’s now like a decor.

More : bigwigs talk only with local bigwigs. It’s almost a rule. Emperor not talk to proles and plebs!

 

TOOL :

If you were a smart BigWig, you would/should :

  1. NEVER warn you’ll visit your stores and offices – Surprise!
  2. TALK to common people, longly, in private, without any managers around

 

That’s all, folks! That simple! This is a double simple way to know what’s really happening there…

But do you want to know? Or do you like the fake “as if” masked game everybody’s playing around you?

 

Thanks for reading!

 

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